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Just One More Leeeetle Example ...
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Just One More Leeeetle Example ...
Posted by
calc_guy
26 Jun 2004 2:45am
Just one more hand where you might just conceivably need to think a little more than one-tenth of a second.
Your hand is: 6H 3D 2C 9S KC KH KD 5S 5C 5H
It's late in the hand. Let's say 10 cards left in the stock. You know your opponent is holding three 9s and three 6s. You've also deduced that he is holding a low combination. You draw the 3 of clubs. What do you discard?
Let me just say I don't think this one is a close call or a matter of opinion. But there's a surprise twist at the end. 
calc_guy
okay, i'll bite
Posted by
fjc1962
(VIP) 26 Jun 2004 9:03am
2C?
C'mon Calc!
Posted by
Menkman74
(VIP) 26 Jun 2004 6:07pm
Make them challenging guy. You throw the 9s. Not many would. But you know why. You throw the 9 knowing they will prob take it to give them four 9's. But, you know that if they are low, you could be holding that 2 or 3 that could give them the three of a kind or run that they need for gin. Otherwise, they may knock after picking up that 9 you threw and you can lay off the 6 and use those low cards to UC them. I'd rather throw the fourth card they need for a four card meld than take a chance at throwing a card that would complete a three card meld. It's a 'no brainer'. Who's on board?
Always a Pleasure, Never a Chore...
Menk
I concur wirh Menk
Posted by
wilpat
(VIP) 26 Jun 2004 6:53pm
Not knowing the earlier part of the hand, I would rather give them the 4 carder than the 3rd 3 carder.
Wilpat
kk
Posted by
Ed_Blue
(VIP) 26 Jun 2004 7:31pm
This is also a quick decision.....lol. I would also throw the 2C. The rationale is that your opponent has 2 three runs already and possibly has the third run and is waiting to knock. By throwing the 2C you feed into the possibility of a low knock but a possibly certain gin by throwing the 6 or 8. In other words, lower your odds and the number of points in your hand....a defensive strategy. That's 2:2....Who will be the tie-breaker.
Not Me
Posted by
PEGASUS
(VIP) 26 Jun 2004 7:34pm
I just play and hold my breath that it's a good move. Wish I had this strategy stuff down pat like you pros. 
'two handed' thinking
Posted by
fjc1962
(VIP) 26 Jun 2004 9:06pm
On the other hand, Menk's choice of the 9 is consistent with a cliche in our grill room - 'always the add-on, never the new'
I'll make it easier
Posted by
calc_guy
26 Jun 2004 11:26pm
OK, I don't think it changes the answer, but let's say there are only FOUR cards left in the stock, instead of 10, so you have only one turn left. And lets' say all four aces have been discarded. All the cards below your 5s are wild -- they could make a meld for your opponent. Now what do you discard?
I'll give my answer -- with the surprise twist -- tomorrow.
calc_guy
dont care if there are 10 cards or 4 cards left
Posted by
Menkman74
(VIP) 27 Jun 2004 12:11am
Calc, you can give all the answers you like. I gave you the right move. You should know more than anyone not to throw a card that is blind. Throw the 9 and move on.
Always a Pleasure, Never a Chore...
Menk
hum....
Posted by
Rampage11
(VIP) 27 Jun 2004 2:49pm
well , calc i would need to no the score and the person that would make my desion , but to b honest i dont c that as a ticky hand , and the only way u would no for sure about the 5 and ks is to c them pick it from discard pile and to watch what they trow ,, thrers alot more to just the cards, could b bluffing u . how would u no. ( and to b honest i dont like that the deck tells # of cards left) but if u were playing off line with friends its a little hardwer to no the count of the deck . and if u played this person b4 u should no what to do already !!!! with me any ways i try to remeber opponts game and how they play , im not good at all the strasgy stuff or % i try to win . isnt that what i suposed to do? o and calc not to be a bad guy but in sums post about unrated games... another thing i dont like, to me the only unrated games should b played with newbis to show them the ropes, any thing eles ..... just scrad!!!!! no offence but thats just me...... happy trails RAMP weres the boatman ???? still waitng for a game.......
I'm posting the answer later today ...
Posted by
calc_guy
27 Jun 2004 6:36pm
... so don't scroll down if you want to figure it out. I'm trying to make it as easy as I can. Here's another look at the hand after you draw:
3D 3C 2C 5C 5S 5H KD KH KC 6H 9S
I want to stress again that you know opponent has three 9s and three 6s. All four aces have been discarded. There are four cards left in the stock -- so only one draw left for you and the opponent. All your cards below the three 5s are wide open to be used in a meld by the opponent. What do you discard?
calc_guy
Hi Ramp....
Posted by
Ed_Blue
(VIP) 27 Jun 2004 7:52pm
I enjoyed our match last week and I hope we can do it again. Your question made me smile. You know, 'where's the Boatman.' I've been trying to join his table for two weeks but he doesn't seem to be interested. Can you imagine someone who has that much to say not acceting a challenge from a '37%' player? Something is wrong with that since it would be a sure win for him....If you find him please let me know.
There is only one answer to this question ...
Posted by
calc_guy
28 Jun 2004 2:08am
... and none of you got it. The correct answer is to throw the 3 of clubs that you just picked up. Any of the cards that you guys mentioned could give the opponent gin. He could be sitting there with three 2s, three 6s and three 9s. The 3D also could give gin. It could fill in a four card diamond sequence. The worst blunder you can make in the game of gin rummy is to throw your opponent gin toward the end of the hand.
Since we know opponent has three 6s and three 9s, the 3C CAN NOT give him gin. You have the 2C and 5C in your hand, so it can't make a sequence. It could only make a meld of three 3s. In fact, you are HOPING he takes the 3C, because then you'll have his hand locked up. The most he can have is 9 melded, and if he goes down, you lay off your 9, your 6, and your 3D and undercut him. The least he can go down with his 2, since all the aces are out.
You have no chance to win this hand by knocking or ginning, so your best shot is to get an undercut. Failing that, you want a draw, and the 3C gives you your best shot at that.
It really wouldn't matter if there were 0, 1, 2, or 3 aces down, because your opponent, if he is good, WILL NOT go down this late with 1. The only way he could know you don't have either four 5s or four Ks is if he's holding both of them in his hand, and if that's true, he can't knock with 1.
Suppose opponent is sitting there with a pair of 3s and a pair of 4s. You WANT him to get the 3s. In fact, a really brilliant opponent might pass up the 3C in this case, because he has no safe discard. In that case, there's a strong chance he could draw a 4 from the stock and discard a 3 safely. Then he could get the fourth 4 for gin (in the first scenario, where there were several picks left).
The surprize twist is -- I didn't get this hand on Game Colony. This hand appeared in George Fraed's book 'Gin Rummy, How to Play and How to Win' on pgs 91 and 92. The twist is, he doesn't suggest throwing the 3C, nor the 2C or the 9S. No! I'll quote from his book. 'Now keep in mind that his is in late play only ... you must break up one of your melds. I have seen players break off kings without thinking ... Provided that both melds are safe plays, discard the fives, simply because it is of lower count ...'
I believe World Champion George Fraed made a mistake on this hand. I agree with the point he was making. It's often necessary to break up a meld for defence late in the hand. If I had drawn the 4H I absolutely would have broken up the fives, since any other discard could easily gin my opponent. But in this case, I don't believe he noticed that the 3C could not gin the opponent. Breaking the fives was just slightly premature.
This was the only mistake I could find in this excellent book. He obviously spent many hours making up the hands and proofreading the text. I believe if he read the argument above, he'd agree with my analysis and say that the 3C is better than a 5. Seeing the fives go, opponent might realize there's only one meld out (the kings) and deduce that it's safe to knock!
My point is, if a world champion can make a mistake, after hours of proofreading, maybe once in a blue moon it's OK to think more than 5 seconds before making a bone head play!!!
calc_guy
kudos, Calc!
Posted by
webmaster
28 Jun 2004 9:56am
Excellent lesson -- please do more of those!
As you just showed, the highest skilled players can make elementary mistakes.
Seems that there was way to much faith in 'learned patterns' and concrete details of the hand were lost.
I'm disappointed in you Calc
Posted by
Menkman74
(VIP) 28 Jun 2004 10:18am
I figured you'd take a little more time to think about the answer before criticizing a pro! If I know he cannot gin by throwing the 9, I throw it. If I know that there is a POSSIBILITY that throwing the 9 could gin, then obviously I dont throw it, i.e. if I havent seen any 4s out there and know that there is a possibility of my opponent having three 4s (along with the 6s and 9s). Because if I KNOW he cannot gin by throwing the 9, then there is more of a shot of me getting the card I need for gin with my 2C, 3C, 3D hand then my opponent does of KNOCKING late in the hand. If you are knocking that late with that type of hand, you just shouldnt be playing. But with ten cards left, I'll take my shot at gin vs HOPING my 'dumb' opponent knocks and I UC him/her. I never mind takin the time for a correction.
Always a Pleasure, Never a Chore...
Menk
OK.....
Posted by
Ed_Blue
(VIP) 28 Jun 2004 4:42pm
I see your logic and the logic of the pro but, being the stubborn person I am, I would have thrown the 2C. Your next draw, the 3C, sems to bear me out. As far as breaking up a run, its depending on how late in the hand it is. With 10 cards left I doubt a run should be broken up. I do agree that the play is for a gin and/or an undercut. The time expended to make a decision in gin is solely based on that player's ability to comprehend and react. When playing for high stakes it pays to take a bit of exta time but, in general, the extra time would not necessarily give you the correct answer.
'UNLESS' your strategy is to throw your opponent off by intention slow play. This has worked a few too mnay times in GC. Now that's another option I don't support.
Back to the subject, I truly believe all the scenarios presented are valid. The only one a might take exception to is breaking up a run with 10 cards left and knowing your opponent has 6's and 9's with you holding both. That means the 2C or the 3C; take your choice.
Menk is a wonderful player and his choice has to be considered but, to me, giving away a very possible gin by intentionally filling in an opponent's run seems a bit drastic and is the least way to win the hand.
Almost forgot ...
Posted by
calc_guy
28 Jun 2004 7:03pm
... Many thanks to you, webmaster, for your kudos, and for this excellent site!
calc_guy
Go ahead and dig in ...
Posted by
calc_guy
28 Jun 2004 6:50pm
Menk, 10 cards left is late in the hand. Most all your cards are going to be in the opponent's hand. You have four draws left. There's virtually no chance you're going to gin this hand. It's at least 10 to 1 against. There's no way to justify throwing the 9S. If no 2 has been thrown, then you can't know opponent doesn't have three 2s. If he can have three 2s, the 9 can give him gin. If a 2 has been thrown, you must throw the 2C. The 9S isn't in the picture.
Then I 'made it easier,' saying only FOUR cards left. Your answer? 'dont care if there are 10 cards or 4 cards left ... Throw the 9 and move on.' Throw the 9 if you want -- but don't be surprised when the opponent says 'Gin!'
Ed, 10 cards left means four draws. Most of those are going to be dead cards, like left over Jacks, Queens, etc., of no use to you or your opponent. There's some chance opponent won't take your 2C and go gin. But there is NO chance YOU are going to gin this hand, without a lot of help from your opponent -- which you won't get if it happens to be George Fraed (or me on a good day).
calc_guy
KK......
Posted by
Ed_Blue
(VIP) 28 Jun 2004 9:37pm
The only down-side of throwing the 2C is that your opponent picks it up and says those glorius words. But what if George Fraed or the Calc_Guy isn't as smart as you and throws your card? Lets say another 3.
Then my move works.
The 3C is an alternative but I'd rather play the 2C. It may not be as safe but it's a pretty good card to throw. I also disagree with the pro breaking up your own hand with ten cards left. Cards are random and your card could be in there.
reply
Posted by
Menkman74
(VIP) 28 Jun 2004 8:35pm
Don't be surprised if my opponent says 'gin', Calc? Surprised?? Shocked would not even be strong enough. Again, I WILL NOT THROW THE 9 IF I KNOW MY OPPONENT CAN GIN WITH IT. With ten cards left, for you to say there is virtually 'NO CHANCE' for me to gin that hand, well to go from no chance to 10 to 1 is a pretty nice variance. I of course dont agree with the odds you give, unless you some how calculated that is actually is 10 to 1 (knowing you anything is possible when it comes to spending time on this stuff) and I stick by my choice to discard the 9 before giving the 3 and 'hoping' my opponent knocks to UC him/her. Depending on who I play, most times I'll know in advance if they would or wouldnt knock and thus conform to the playing style of my opponent. If I do expect a possible knock from what would be an obviously weak opponent that game, then your move of the 3c is a legitimate alternative to the 9. Bottom line though is each player plays differently and no matter what the odds of one thing happening over another is strictly dependent upon each move that player makes.
Always a Pleasure, Never a Chore...
Menk
no brainer
Posted by
JOHN726
(VIP) 28 Jun 2004 9:19pm
This was a no brainer. Your (cal guy) choice was the only choice. Ed picked the wrong answer.
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